Slovakia's surprise fourth quarter real GDP growth figure of 14.1% y-o-y is a positive signal for the economy's resilience amid a slowdown in the external sector. That said, we are holding to our view that growth will fall markedly in
Ivars Godmanis, Latvia's new {rime Minister, has unveiled an action plan for his four-party, centre-right government's first 100 days. Priorities include fighting inflation, strengthening energy supply, reviewing utility tariffs, and concluding the privatisation of fixed-line phone company
CPI rose 19.9% y-o-y in December, with annual average inflation up at 13.1%. The prime diver behind this move has been the leap in food prices throughout the region, which have hit Tajikistan especially hard. Wheat and vegetable oil prices
Tajikistan has seized a 500kg shipment of opium and heroin, which is the largest since independence. Eight people were arrested along with the drugs near the Afghan border, but with as much as 20% of Afghan production transiting through Central
In line with end-year data releases we have revised a number of our medium term macroeconomic forecasts. In line with a higher than expected end-2007 unemployment figure of 8.0%, we have revised upward our jobless rate forecasts through to 2012.
The banking sector should be able to weather the downturn in the economy. However, there is a risk that the quality of the sector's relatively unseasoned loan book could deteriorate by more than expected, potentially resulting in a demand-squeezing credit
Tax hikes will help the government to keep its budget deficit well below the 3.0% of GDP specified in the Maastricht convergence criteria. We forecast a 2.4% of GDP deficit for this year, but further improvement will be made more
Turkish general government budget figures over the first eleven months of 2007 confirm our view that the budget deficit will widen that year. The consolidated budget for January-November posted a TRY11.1bn deficit, prompting us to raise our full-year estimate to
With Slovenia assuming the rotating EU presidency in H108, Croatia has been handed a golden opportunity to have a key neighbour push forward its hopes for early EU membership. Instead, the spat over the Ecological and Fisheries Protection Zone has
Real GDP growth came in at a solid 7.8% in 2007, which underpins our view that the Tajik economy will expand by an average of 7.16% over our five-year forecast period. Inflation, though, will remain a problem into 2008 as
The formation of the new Croatian government is a positive development for policy continuity, but the 2009 European Parliament target for finalising EU membership talks could be slipping. Even a delay of one more year would not significantly impact upon
Prime Minister Ivo Sanader looks set to secure sufficient support to form a new government. His second administration will likely be more challenging than his first, as he prepares Croatia for accession to the EU, and implements much needed structural
The spectre of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in the Hague continues to hang over Croatia. The resignation of Interior Minister Ivica Kirin on December 29 over his participation in a hunt alongside General Mladen Markac, who
The kuna ended 2007 at HRK7.3265/EUR, which was marginally stronger than the level at which it entered the year. Once again, the central bank did not allow any significant upside in HRK/EUR. However, over the coming years, we think that
Montenegro's current account deficit totalled EUR511.1mn from January to September 2007, increasing 60.8% y-o-y. During this period, the current account deficit totalled 32.7% of GDP, however this was financed from net FDI inflows which amounted to 21.6% of GDP. We
Romania's ruling Liberal Party has named Norica Nicolai as the new justice minister to replace Tudor Chiuariu, who resigned ahead of an investigation into corruption allegations against him. The
As a result of benign macroeconomic fundamentals, which we expect to remain in place over the medium term, we forecast further appreciation of the Azeri manat going forward. While capital from the ongoing oil boom will continue to be the
Igor Chudinov has been appointed as the new Prime Minister, following the electoral success of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's Ak Zhol party in the December 16 parliamentary elections. Ak Zhol secured 71 out of the 90 parliamentary seats in the election.
